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Supply forecasts for mined materials usually start from announced production targets. Between announcement and ore sits a permitting process measured in years.
Critical minerals markets depend on more than geological supply. Processing, transport, skills, permitting, quality control, finance, and end-user commitments determine whether material can move from a deposit to a usable industrial input.
A mine announcement does not equal secure supply. The market also depends on processing, recycling, substitution, transport and the quality of the material produced.
Critical-minerals security depends less on a mine announcement than on who can refine, recycle and move the material at commercial scale.